July 31, 2020

FINALLY, SOME GOOD NEWS. I REALLY LIKE IKE!

Remember this name: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

How are we getting vaccines and treatment programs rolling so quickly? Read this article. It sounds good to me, and maybe, just maybe, our Defense Department has quietly been doing some excellent work — for years.  President Eisenhower started the agency. Do read this article. “…DARPA’s story is a counterexample of U.S. government foresight, one that began more than a decade ago with the aim of finding super-fast ways to protect American troops if they were to confront a deadly new virus in the field.”How a secretive Pentagon agency seeded the ground for a rapid coronavirus cure

FROM THE ATLANTIC:

Here’s what one expert told Zeynep Tufekci, for her new piece on airborne transmission:

Saskia Popescu, an infectious-disease epidemiologist, emphasized to me that we should not call these “super-spreaders,” referring only to the people, but “super-spreader events,” because they seem to occur in very particular settings—an important clue. …  The super-spreader–event triad seems to rely on three V’s: venue, ventilation, and vocalization. Most super-spreader events occur at an indoor venue, especially a poorly ventilated one (meaning air is not being exchanged, diluted, or filtered), where lots of people are talking, chanting, or singing.

Harrison County reports 7 new cases for Thursday. Lgv has 20. Tyler has 41. 

The Texas Rt is still <1 and is .91 today.

Hopefully, I did this chart correctly today:

Unfortunately, the Counties that I’ve been following all continue to show increasing cases /1000 population. There is more testing being done now, but the hospitals are crowded. However, locally, we’re treading water and keeping our heads afloat. Our problem is LOCAL. We must be doing something right. Let’s keep it up and protect each other and our home. We can protect everyone —including the old folks and especially the children. 

A Genetic Basis for Severe COVID-19 Discovered
J. Harris: This explains the recent JAMA article that explained how some folks got sicker than others. I did not read nor do I understand this article but I reverence it to demonstrate the complexity of modern genetics. Charles Darwin would be impressed. If only he’d had a computer. 

This girl today said she recognized me from the Vegetarians Club, but I’d swear I’ve never met herbivore.

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE

July 30, 2020

Rt for Texas is 0.91 Wed. evening, the lowest in the Nation–I guess because we are all spread out and are wearing masks? J.H.

(J. HARRIS: Notice that all of the Texas Counties listed above are still increasing in COVID cases. Hopefully, these cases per thousand population in the counties will go down before the anticipated opening dates for schools. Except for Cass and Bowie counties, Harrison County is lower than most.

MASKS WORK!

Rep. Louie Gohmert, who had been scheduled to travel with Trump, tests positive for the coronavirus

A fellow in NY wrote this: Wearing a mask says: “I’m not just concerned about myself. I’m concerned about you, too. We are all part of the same community, the same country, and the same struggle to stay healthy.”

FROM JOHNS HOPKINS:1. German and U.K. Officials Warn Of A Possible New COVID-19 Wave In Europe (NPR) The European Union successfully flattened the curve of COVID-19 cases in the spring – but a second wave could be building in parts of the EU, according to both British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of Germany’s disease agency.

2. ‘It’s Like You Injected Adrenaline Into Them’: Facebook’s Vaccine Misinformation Problem Faces a New Test with Covid-19 (STAT) As scientists begin to clear a path to a potential coronavirus vaccine, researchers and advocates are increasingly sounding the alarm over what they see as a looming threat: Facebook’s apparent inability to police dangerous falsehoods about vaccines.

3.Haplotype networks of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak
The Diamond Princess cruise ship was put under quarantine offshore Yokohama, Japan, after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong was confirmed as a coronvirus disease 2019 case…. As of March 8, 697 COVID-19 cases had been identified among the 3,711 persons on the DP and 7 people had died (4)…”…SARS-CoV-2 dissemination on the Diamond Princess originated from a single introduction event before the quarantine started…. (J. Harris: Genetic testing on the virus from the ship is thought to prove that all the illness on the ship came from one passenger who had previously disembarked).

Houston doctor behind hydroxychloroquine drug video was sued in Louisiana woman’s death

Estimation of Viral Aerosol Emissions From Simulated Individuals With Asymptomatic to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019Conclusions and Relevance  In this modeling study, breathing and coughing were estimated to release large numbers of viruses, ranging from thousands to millions of virus copies per cubic meter in a room with an individual with COVID-19 with a high viral load, depending on ventilation and microdroplet formation process. The estimated infectious risk posed by a person with typical viral load who breathes normally was low. The results suggest that only few people with very high viral load pose an infection risk in poorly ventilated closed environments. These findings suggest that strict respiratory protection may be needed when there is a chance to be in the same small room with an individual, whether symptomatic or not, especially for a prolonged period.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Asymptomatic Health Care Workers in the Greater Houston, Texas, Area

As COVID-19 pandemic reopening strategies are contemplated and enacted, understanding asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs is critical…We report a 4.8% difference between COVID-19–facing (5.4%) and non–COVID-19–facing (0.6%) HCWs, potentially indicating transmission from patients or coworkers.5

(J. Harris: Health care workers on patient wards and allied departments involving patient care had a  5.4% rate Covid infection. Other hospital workers who were outside or in non patient buildings and environment only had a Covid infection rate of 0.6%. The conclusion was that the workers who were around patients were either being infected by the patients or each other or both).

FROM JAMA: Self-collected Midnasal vs Clinician-Collected Nasopharyngeal Swabs to Detect SARS-CoV-2 Infection:Unsupervised home midnasal swab collection was comparable to clinician-collected nasopharyngeal swab collection for detection of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic patients, particularly those with higher viral loads. During this rapidly evolving pandemic, we enrolled 185 individuals presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing, including 41 with positive test results. We used novel home-based swab self-collection and rapid delivery services, thus avoiding participant contact with the health care system.

(J. Harris: Swab collection by patients at home was almost a good as when done by professionals — although many of these patients were health care professionals).
When the smog lifts in Los Angeles U.C.L.A.

IMPORTANT STATEMENT FROM DR. FAUCI:

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE

July 29, 2020

[Longview News-Journal] Longview mayor warns: COVID-19 cases will spike as schools reopen (A very realistic review of Longview’s Covid experience–Mayor Dr. Mack)

Judge Chad Sims reports 13 new COVID cases for Harrison County on Tuesday. 

From Johns Hopkins:1.Research reveals heart complications in COVID-19 patients“The first, an observational cohort study, involved 100 unselected coronavirus patients identified from the University Hospital Frankfurt COVID-19 Registry from April to June, 57 risk factor-matched patients, and 50 healthy volunteers.

“Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging revealed heart involvement in 78 patients and active cardiac inflammation in 60, independent of underlying conditions, disease severity, overall course of illness, and time from diagnosis to CMR…Thirty-three of 100 patients required hospitalization…
“Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging revealed heart involvement in 78 patients and active cardiac inflammation in 60, independent of underlying conditions, disease severity, overall course of illness, and time from diagnosis to CMR….Biopsy of the heart muscle in patients with serious findings showed ongoing immune-mediated inflammation.

“…The study authors noted that while most coronavirus research has focused on short-term respiratory complications, particularly in critically ill patients, mounting evidence suggests that COVID-19 has a significant impact on the cardiovascular system by worsening heart failure in patients with preexisting cardiac diseases.

J. Harris: A second study in the same report, both from Germany, demonstrated autopsy finding of some heart inflammation in 24 of 39 Covid patients who were, of course, deceased:
 … “The study authors noted that while most coronavirus research has focused on short-term respiratory complications, particularly in critically ill patients, mounting evidence suggests that COVID-19 has a significant impact on the cardiovascular system by worsening heart failure in patients with preexisting cardiac diseases.

“”Overt fulminant myocarditis has been reported in isolated patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the authors wrote. “However, the current data indicate that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in cardiac tissue does not necessarily cause an inflammatory reaction consistent with clinical myocarditis.
“…Cause of death was listed as pneumonia in 35 cases (89.7%), while the other four (10.2%) died of necrotizing fasciitis, cardiac decompensation with previous heart failure, bacterial bronchitis, or unknown causes. The most common underlying illnesses were coronary artery disease (32 [82.0%]), high blood pressure (17 [43.6%]), and diabetes (7 [17.9%]). Median patient age was 85 years, and 23 of 39 patients (59%) were women.”

(J. Harris: So the good news is that unless you’re old, fat, hypertensive, or have a gene defect or two, COVID probably won’t kill your heart. The bad news is that even in mild cases, many of which were mild enough not to require hospitalization,  there was still evidence of heart muscle involvement. Of course, no one knows yet if this level of heart damage will have long term consequences. Let’s look at it again in about ten years. The point is, medically, it appears most desirable not to catch COVID. Wear your masks, “space out,” and avoid crowds. I continue to assume that everyone with whom I come into contact with is infected, except my one weary household contact. I apologize for the length of this narrative, but I feel it is important).

Texas AG Ken Paxton says local health authorities can’t close schools

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a guidance letter Tuesday that local health authorities can’t close schools for the sole purpose of preventing future COVID-19 infections.

Paxton said it’s up to school officials to decide whether, when and how to open schools, not local health authorities whose roles are “limited by statute to addressing specific, actual outbreaks of disease.”

“Education of our children is an essential Texas value and there is no current statewide order prohibiting any school from opening,” Paxton said in a statement. “While local health authorities may possess some authority to close schools in limited circumstances, they may not issue blanket orders closing all schools on a purely preventative basis. That decision rightfully remains with school system leaders.”

I got some batteries that were given out free of charge

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE

July 28, 2020

MNM AND JUDGE SIMS SUMMARY FOR JUNE AND JULY

Symptom Duration and Risk Factors for Delayed Return to Usual Health Among Outpatients with COVID-19 in a Multistate Health Care Systems Network — United States, March–June 2020
“…Most studies to date have focused on symptoms duration and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with severe COVID-19 (1,2). This report indicates that even among symptomatic adults tested in outpatient settings, it might take weeks for resolution of symptoms and return to usual health. Not returning to usual health within 2–3 weeks of testing was reported by approximately one third of respondents. Even among young adults aged 18–34 years with no chronic medical conditions, nearly one in five reported that they had not returned to their usual state of health 14–21 days after testing. In contrast, over 90% of outpatients with influenza recover within approximately 2 weeks of having a positive test result (7). Older age and presence of multiple chronic medical conditions have previously been associated with illness severity among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 (8,9); in this study, both were also associated with prolonged illness in an outpatient population…”

FROM JOHNS HOPKINS:1. Scent Dog Identification of Samples from COVID-19 Patients – A Pilot Study (BMC Infectious Diseases) Volatile organic compounds produced during respiratory infections can cause specific scent imprints, which can be detected by trained dogs with a high rate of precision. During the presentation of 1012 randomized samples, the dogs achieved an overall average detection rate of 94% (±3.4%) with 157 correct indications of positive, 792 correct rejections of negative, 33 incorrect indications of negative or incorrect rejections of 30 positive sample presentations.

2. PRESS RELEASENIST Launches Investigation of Face Masks’ Effect on Face Recognition Software. Now that so many of us are covering our faces to help reduce the spread of COVID-19, how well do face recognition algorithms identify people wearing masks? The answer, according to a preliminary study by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), is with great difficulty. Even the best of the 89 commercial facial recognition algorithms tested had error rates between 5% and 50% in matching digitally applied face masks with photos of the same person without a mask. (NIST, 7/27/20)
Covid-19 mask safety: Two or three layers best to protect against virus, study finds
The researchers really wanted to make two points: first, that something is probably better than nothing; and second, a two-layer mask is significantly better than a one-layer mask. And a surgical mask may be even a little better than that.
But none of these masks are perfect, so as a result — even if you’re wearing a surgical mask — there might be viral spread around the layers of those masks.

We know part of the reason masks became such an important tool is that people can spread this even when they’re asymptomatic. It means that masks become crucial whenever you are out and about, even if you feel healthy.

But we still need to maintain physical distance from people, even if you’re wearing masks. If you start to layer these things in — the physical distance, the hand washing and the masking — it can go a long way to prevent the virus from spreading.

What Will Schools Do When a Teacher Gets Covid-19?
Good opinion piece regarding school planning NOW.
Hygiene Theater Is a Huge Waste of Time
…By funneling our anxieties into empty cleaning rituals, we lose focus on the more common modes of COVID-19 transmission and the most crucial policies to stop this plague. “My point is not to relax, but rather to focus on what matters and what works,” Goldman said. “Masks, social distancing, and moving activities outdoors. That’s it. That’s how we protect ourselves. That’s how we beat this thing.”

I changed my iPod’s name to Titanic. It’s syncing now

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE

July 27, 2020

Harrison County added 9 cases on Saturday and 5 on Sunday while Gregg County added 12 and 13 on the same dates. Remember Free Covid tests in Longview fail 8-2. 
TEXAS Rt on 26 July is  0.94—MASKS are working! 

Flu Shot And Pneumonia Vaccine Might Reduce Alzheimer’s Risk, Research Shows

A test of a late-stage vaccine will enroll people at 89 sites around the United States.

“…The study, a Phase 3 clinical trial, is to enroll 30,000 healthy people at about 89 sites around the country. Half will receive two shots of the vaccine, 28 days apart, and half will receive two shots of a saltwater placebo. Neither the volunteers nor the medical staff giving the injections will know who is getting the real vaccine….at least three more Phase 3 trials would be starting soon, each needing 30,000 patients….Researchers will then monitor the subjects, looking for side effects and waiting to see if significantly fewer vaccinated people get Covid-19, indicating that the vaccine works. The main goal is to determine whether the vaccine can prevent the illness. The study will also try to find out if it can prevent severe Covid-19 and death; if it can prevent infection entirely, based on lab tests; and if just one shot can prevent the illness.

MORE ON VACCINES From recent Johns Hopkins Site:
“…The good news, because it is worth saying, is that experts think there will be a COVID-19 vaccine. The virus that causes COVID-19 does not seem to be an outlier like HIV. Scientists have gone from discovery of the virus to more than 165 candidate vaccines in record time, with 27 vaccines already in human trials. Human trials consist of at least three phases: Phase 1 for safety, Phase 2 for efficacy and dosing, and Phase 3 for efficacy in a huge group of tens of thousands of people. At least six COVID-19 vaccines are in or about to enter Phase 3 trials, which will take several more months.

“…Vaccines are, in essence, a way to activate the immune system without disease. They can be made with weakened viruses, inactivated viruses, the proteins from a virus, a viral protein grafted onto an innocuous virus, or even just the mRNA that encodes a viral protein. Getting exposed to a vaccine is a bit like having survived the disease once, without the drawbacks.

“…In fact, a COVID-19 vaccine is quite likely to require two doses; the first primes the immune system, allowing the second to induce a stronger immune response. Officials would have to balance giving one dose to as many people as possible with giving a second dose to those who already had one. “That was a complication we didn’t face in 2009, and we were so grateful,” says Moore.”

I’m reading a book about anti-gravity.  I just can’t put it down.

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE

July 26, 2020

Free drive-thru testing in Longview for Harrison County citizens: 
Free drive-thru COVID-19 testing will continue Monday in Longview. It is scheduled 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Mondays through Saturdays and will take place for several weeks.

A person does not need to have symptoms to be tested, but they should bring a form of identification and have a phone number or email address for their results to be delivered.

To participate, go to the Longview Convention Complex at 100 Grand Blvd., off Cotton Street, and follow the signs to the testing area.

A private vendor, Honu, will conduct the testing on behalf of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, city of Longview and Gregg County Emergency Management.

Registration will be available online or in person. To register online, go to tinyurl.com/LvwTesting .

Test results should be available 24 to 48 hours after testing, the city of Longview said. 

(J. Harris: The case counts are steady in our area. Anotherweek or two with MASKS and spacing should bring usdown. Chart is allso attached)

(J. Harris: ICU beds are short in our area but not because on COVID) also attached

Presence of Genetic Variants Among Young Men With Severe COVID-19
Key Points
Question  Are genetic variants associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in young male patients?
Findings  In a case series that included 4 young male patients with severe COVID-19 from 2 families, rare loss-of-function variants of the X-chromosomal TLR7 were identified, with immunological defects in type I and II interferon production.

Meaning  These findings provide insights into the pathogenesis of COVID-19.
(J. Harris: Two pairs of brothers had two different genetic abnormalities that seem to have reduced their ability to overcome COVID. One of the young men died. So, some genetic deficiencies reduce resistance to COVID)

JOHNS HOPKINS PROVIDED REFERENCES (SOME GOOD ONES)1. Neonatal Management and Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observation Cohort Study (Lancet Child and Adolescent Health) Data suggest that perinatal transmission of COVID-19 is unlikely to occur if correct hygiene precautions are undertaken and that allowing neonates to room in with their mothers and direct breastfeeding are safe procedures when paired with effective parental education of infant protective strategies.

2. The Importance of Reopening America’s Schools this Fall (CDC) The best available evidence from countries that have opened schools indicates that COVID-19 poses low risks to school-aged children, at least in areas with low community transmission, and suggests that children are unlikely to be major drivers of the spread of the virus. Reopening schools creates opportunity to invest in the education, well-being, and future of one of America’s greatest assets—our children—while taking every precaution to protect students, teachers, staff and all their families.The Importance of Reopening America’s Schools this Fall (CDC) The best available evidence from countries that have opened schools indicates that COVID-19 poses low risks to school-aged children, at least in areas with low community transmission, and suggests that children are unlikely to be major drivers of the spread of the virus. Reopening schools creates opportunity to invest in the education, well-being, and future of one of America’s greatest assets—our children—while taking every precaution to protect students, teachers, staff and all their families.

3. Celltrion Launches Human Clinical Trials of Potential COVID-19 Antibody Treatment (The Investor) South Korean biopharma giant Celltrion said on July 24 it has launched phase 1 clinical trials of a potential antiviral antibody treatment for COVID-19 patients. The clinical study follows promising preclinical results for the virus treatment candidate and has received approval from the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety.

Mask mandate appears to be helping in Texas, but experts ask Gov. Greg Abbott not to rule out a shutdown (from the TEXAS TRIBUNE which is FREE and an excellent publication especially about COVID and schools).

Our backs are to the wall’: Texas hospital to turn away COVID-19 patients with poor survival chances (July 22 article from the Valley)

That baseball player was such a bad sport. He stole third base and then just went home!

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE

July 24, 2020

James Harris	2:34 PM (26 minutes ago)
to Ron

BLOOD DONORS URGENTLY NEED AT CARTER BLOOD BANK IN LONGVIEW. Learn your blood type, cholesterol, and get a COVID test –all for FREE.CARTER BLOOD CENTER
Carter BloodCare 3080 N Eastman Rd Ste 112, Longview, TX …

FREE COVID TESTS MONDAY-SAT 8-2 FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTUREAT LONGVIEW CONVENTION COMPLEX WHICH IS WEST OF TOWN OFF 31.

JOHNS HOPKINS FILTERS1. At the state level, several hard-hit states appear to be peaking or plateauing as well. Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all exhibiting relatively steady or decreasing daily incidence over the past week or so; however, Arizona, Florida, and Texas continue to report record mortality (and continuing to increase). Florida and Texas are both now averaging more than 100 deaths per day, and Arizona is reporting more than 80 deaths per day. Notably, Arizona is reporting more than 1.1 daily deaths per 100,000 population, which is more than double the current rate in Florida and Texas. 
Can Masks Save Us From More Lockdowns? Here’s What The Science Says (SIMPLE WAY TO UNDERSTAND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OR DECLINE! VERY IMPORTANT)

If 95% of people wear cloth masks when they’re out and about interacting with other people, it reduces transmission by at least 30%. In other words, each infected person will go on to infect 30% fewer people.

Yet even with a 30% reduction in transmission, the cumulative impact on a community can be massive. To understand why, it helps to consider some math: The coronavirus spreads exponentially. For example, let’s say in a place where no one is wearing masks, each infected person is currently passing the virus to 1.03 others. This means 100 infected people will go on to infect 103 others, who in turn infect 106 others, who infect 109 and so on. The result is that in, say, seven five-day cycles of infection, a total of 889 people will have contracted the virus.

But if you curb the transmission rate by 30%, this means that instead of infecting 1.03 others, each infected person passes the virus on to only 0.72 others. So now 100 infected people go on to infect only 72 people. These 72 go on to infect just 52 people in the next cycle. By the seventh cycle, only 10 new people are infected, and only a total of 332 people have contracted the virus altogether. Essentially, instead of exponential growth you’ve triggered what’s called exponential decay.

U.S. Hits 4 Million Cases Of Coronavirus — Adding A Million New Cases In Just 15 Days

R FACTOR: HOW FAST WILL COVID SPREAD

TEXAS is now less than 1 !!!!!!!

What washes up on tiny beaches? Microwaves.

GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK.  CLICK ON “COMMENT” TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK or use one of the alternative methods for providing feedback.

click here to CLOSE THIS PAGE