April 17, 2020
(A CAUTION TO A HOT STORY AND RUN ON THE MARKET TODAY)
CDC REPORT FOR 16 APRIl
If you are having a bad day, don’t read the rest of this.
STATISTICAL MODELS AND CONSIDERATIONS:
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Covid-19 model (IHME) is what the U.S is using to make many decisions. Many, many, (most?) statisticians consider the IHME model badly flawed and inaccurate and dangerous.
“Major policy decisions need model input, but models are valuable only to the extent that outputs are transparent, are valid, are based on accurately documented sources, are rigorously evaluated, and yield robust and reliable projections.”
“… but countries that have flattened death curves earliest may not provide a basis for extrapolating trends in areas where similar control could prove elusive.”
“… The model rests on the likely incorrect assumption that effects of social distancing policies are the same everywhere and that suppression policies will be implemented in all regions and will remain effective throughout.”
*J. Harris note: I never knew much about statistics, and I don’t expect politicians to know much about them either. Today, I include articles with criticisms of some U.S. efforts and statistical guesses. I’d like to see more open discussion about our statistical model (IHME) before we guess wrong and relax our vigilance too early or incautiously. I hope that medical and political leaders will be very, very, very cautious in their decisions making and not get in too big a hurry. I’d rather see the U.S. make people unhappy rather than dead.
In addition, the Chinese count of deaths is now known to be maliciously inaccurate and might further invalidate the IHME.
*J Harris:This is the British medical view of what has happened in the US and does not necessarily reflect my views. If you are feeling edgy, don’t read it. I am not interested in political squabbles.
More British opinion. I have included it because of the mention that many of our rural hospitals closed or were acquired by large hospital corporations because some states refused to accept the Affordable Care Act Medicaid. Rural America is lucky that we aren’t too crowded but unfortunate that definitive medical care is lacking in many rural areas.
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