Marshall Animal Shelter Receives Large Donation

[Marshall, Texas] On March 29, 2021, Mr. Jerry Cargill presented a check in the amount of $150,000 to the City of Marshall to assist with the construction of the new Marshall Pet Adoption Center. This check represents the second scheduled installment of a commitment, from Friends of Marshall Animals, to raise $450,000 from private donors towards the construction of this much-needed facility.

The City of Marshall would like to thank the Friends of Marshall Animals’ private donors for their ongoing funding efforts and contributions. Tax deductible contributions may continue to be made to Friends of Marshall Animals, Inc., P.O. Drawer V, Marshall, TX 75671, and at FriendsofMarshallAnimals.org online, or by visiting their Facebook page: facebook.com/FriendsOfMA/

Photographed are Mr. Jerry Cargill, local businessman and philanthropist, presenting the $150,000 check to Marshall City Manager Mark Rohr.

Amanda Smith —

Thank you to all of the wonderful people who have donated so far – and especially to Steve Carlile and Jerry Cargill for their heroic fundraising efforts and collaboration with Friends of Marshall Animals.

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CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/31/2021

Cases are rising again in the U.S

“….Several factors are fueling the upturn… A more contagious variant (the one first identified in Britain, called B.1.1.7) is spreading. Some mayors and governors have continued to lift restrictions and mask rules. Many Americans are behaving less cautiously. And vaccinations have not gotten the country near herd immunity.

“Many experts aren’t surprised. “For literally a month and a half, [they have] all been predicting that the second half of March is when B.1.1.7 would become the dominant variant in the United States…But the success of the country’s ongoing vaccination drive should keep deaths and hospitalizations well below their January peaks. Many of the people at the greatest risk of severe illness have already been inoculated, which means new cases are likely to be concentrated among younger and healthier people…”

Florida variant cases double in 2 days to 2.3K+

 California variants may be 20% more transmissible, are officially ‘of concern,’ CDC says

”Two coronavirus variants first detected in California are now officially “variants of concern,” according to a March 16 update from the CDC.

The variants B.1.427 and B.1.429, both initially identified in California, are classified by the CDC as variants of concern. The three-tier classification system has “variant of high consequence” as the most worrisome group, followed by “variant of concern” and then “variant of interest.” No variant is currently considered a variant of high consequence.

Five variants are currently considered variants of concern, including the U.K. variant B.1.1.7, South Africa variant B.1.351 and Japan/Brazil variant P.1.

The California variants are classified as “of concern” because they may be about 20 percent more transmissible, the CDC said, citing early research. It’s also unclear if treatments are less effective against the strains. “

FROM BECKER CLIPS:

Young, unvaccinated adults fuel COVID-19 hospitalization surge in Michigan

Between March 1 and March 23, hospitalizations jumped 633 percent for adults ages 30-39 and 800 percent for adults ages 40-49, according to data from MHA. In comparison, hospitalizations increased by just 37 percent among those 80 and older over the same time period

GOOD ARTICLE FOR LONG HAUL LUNG INVOLVEMENT

The spatial landscape of lung pathology during COVID-19 progression

We provide evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infects predominantly alveolar epithelial cells and induces a localized hyper-inflammatory cell state associated with lung damage. 

(PDF AVAILABLE THAT I DIDN’T READ)

Why indoor spaces are still prime COVID hotspots

J. Harris: This is the best ventilation and Covid article I have seen. Good read. Good reference to keep for educators, builders, building owners.

“The precise infectious dose for SARS-CoV-2 is also unknown8. But researchers can infer how much exhaled virus is needed to cause infection by analysing disease outbreaks. For example, Jimenez and colleagues used details from an infamous choir rehearsal in Skagit Valley in Washington — where one person probably infected 52 of the 60 other attendees — to estimate the amount of infectious virus exhaled8.

“Opening windows is the easiest method that health authorities suggest to improve ventilation. Although it is better than doing nothing, an open window rarely exchanges enough air between the indoor and outdoor environment, especially if there is no cross-breeze…

Hopkins Cited:

1. Hayat-Vax Becomes First COVID-19 Vaccine Produced in the Arab World (Precision Vaccinations) In a historic move, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on March 28, 2021, the commencement of the manufacturing of a COVID-19 vaccine in the country. The vaccine, called Hayat-Vax [Hayat means life in Arabic], is the first indigenous COVID-19 vaccine in the region that will be manufactured by a newly created JV between Sinopharm China National Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (CNBG) and G42, the leading technology company based in Abu Dhabi.

2. CDC Head Pleads with Americans as COVID-19 Cases Rise (CIDRAP) “I’m going to lose the script, and I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,” said Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, today during the White House COVID-19 press briefing. “We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are, and so much reason for hope, but right now I’m scared.” Growing visibly emotional, Walensky explained that after weeks of going down or remaining stable, COVID-19 cases across the country have jumped again, as has happened at least twice in the past year before the nation experienced a major surge in virus activity.

(J. Harris: Here we go again.)

LAST BUT NOT LEASED: (I’ve been scratching my head wondering if I haven’t already sent this sign out)?

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CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/30/2021

J. Harris: Concerning the above charts: The first one, I piece together from several sources, almost daily, with some reports lagging a day or two. It takes me about an hour a day to put it together.

The second chart was in the Marshall News Messenger today and gives WEEKLY stats including fatalities.

The third chart is from the NYT and is a piece of a chart made to order for me. It arrives before the sun comes up daily and requires no effort on my part to assimilate the information — and it is accompanied by up-to-date, edited medical and Covid information in a readable form. You DO NOT HAVE TO BE A SUBSCRIBER to receive it by email or to make your own daily list of places that you’d like to see including virtually anywhere in the world.  Were you to read this magnificent WORK, you could know ‘most everything that is going on in the Covid world ( and could localize your areas of interest as well). The Times does a great job with this constantly updated feature. I don’t know what to call it: a “work” or  a “UNIT.” There are many dashboards, including some very good ones provided by The Texas Department of Health and Johns Hopkins, and from Oregon. However, in my opinion, this is the most useful Covid information that I receive, and these NYT folks are the only ones emailing me a personalized copy. Free. And, oh, you don’t see editorials.

From the NYT: More Good Vaccine News 

The Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are very effective in real-world conditions at preventing infections, the C.D.C. reported.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?

A NEW “SUB-UNIT” VACCINE FROM CHINA

Safety and immunogenicity of a recombinant tandem-repeat dimeric RBD-based protein subunit vaccine (ZF2001) against COVID-19 in adults: two randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1 and 2 trials

“…Although several COVID-19 vaccines have been developed so far, they will not be sufficient to meet the global demand. Development of a wider range of vaccines, with different mechanisms of action, could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 globally. We developed a protein subunit vaccine against COVID-19 using a dimeric form of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein as the antigen.

:…  The [new] vaccine candidate, ZF2001, is a protein subunit vaccine that has advanced into phase 3 development. 

“Compared with other vaccine candidates in clinical trials targeting mainly the whole virus or the S protein, ZF2001 targets the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein. 

(J. Harris: The vaccine uses less antigenic material but  has been found to stimulate antibody production and provide protection with tolerable side effects in a vaccine that might lend itself to mass production “cheaply”. It does not require extensive refrigeration. It is involved in  large trials in China at this time.)

Routine asymptomatic testing strategies for airline travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a simulation study

Routine asymptomatic testing for SARS-CoV-2 before travel can be an effective strategy to reduce passenger risk of infection during travel, although abbreviated quarantine with post-travel testing is probably needed to reduce population-level transmission due to importation of infection when travelling from a high to low incidence setting.

FROM HOPKINS CITATIONS

1. What it Will take to Vaccinate the World Against COVID-19 (Nature) A special report outlines the challenges — from unleashing the power of mRNA vaccines, to the battle for temporary intellectual-property relief. Within just a few months, pharmaceutical firms have produced hundreds of millions of doses of COVID-19 vaccine. But the world needs billions — and as fast as possible. Companies say they could make enough vaccines to immunize most of the world’s population by the end of 2021. But this doesn’t take into account political delays in distribution, such as countries imposing export controls — or that the overwhelming majority of doses are going to wealthier countries.

2. Wastewater monitoring outperforms case numbers as a tool to track COVID-19 incidence dynamics when test positivity rates are high

Incidence dynamics estimated based on wastewater data were found to better track the timing and shape of the reference infection peak compared to estimates based on confirmed cases. In contrast, case confirmations provided a better estimate of the subsequent decline in infections. Under a regime of high-test positivity rates, WBE thus provides critical information that is complementary to clinical data to monitor the pandemic trajectory.

CDC PRESS RELEASES:

1. First Mobile Vaccination Units in US to Open in Maryland The nation’s first federally operated mobile COVID-19 vaccination units will soon roll through eastern Maryland. The two mobile sites will provide access to COVID-19 vaccinations for thousands of Marylanders who live in remote or otherwise underserved areas in eight eastern Maryland counties. Targeted to people who are socially vulnerable or live in remote areas, appointments will be booked through the health department in the county of residence. (FEMA, 3/29/2021)

2. Connecticut First State to Open COVID-19 Vaccine Mobile Unit In the ongoing effort to bring the COVID vaccine to communities and people in socially vulnerable areas, Connecticut will open the country’s first Mobile Vaccination Unit (MVU) on March 29, 2021 at the Beardsley Zoo in Bridgeport, Connecticut. The MVU will travel throughout Connecticut for 60 days to reach populations in 17 communities. Destinations were targeted based on the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, US Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates, low vaccine coverage, metrics and other barriers to vaccine access. The MVU will be used to complement ongoing efforts of local public health departments, health care providers, pharmacies, community and faith-based organizations, employers, private sector vaccinators and other federal resources. (FEMA, 3/26/2021)

Amazon gets FDA authorization for COVID-19 test kit

LAST BUT NOT LEASED:

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CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/29/2021

CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/29/2021

CLICK HERE TO GET VACCINE TX VAC HUBS FOR 29 MARCH

J. Harris: Scroll down to :

Then click the blue writing as above

Texas COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation – Week of March 29 (Week 16)

Another way to click the same list in a different format.

GREAT STAT SUMMARY FROM BECKER’S “CASES TICK UP”

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection after natural infection

“… the authors were able to determine that 3·27% of those who were uninfected during the first surge had a positive test during the second surge, compared with 0·65% among those who had previously recorded a positive test. Thus, they determined from that, in general, past infection confers 80·5% protection against reinfection, which decreases to 47·1% in those aged 65 years and older…the findings are similar in a sensitivity analysis of nurses, doctors, social workers, and health-care assistants who were tested regularly due to their profession.

“…many will find the data reported by Hansen and colleagues about protection through natural infection relatively alarming. Only 80·5% protection from reinfection in general, decreasing to 47·1% in people aged 65 years and older are more concerning figures than offered by previous studies. Until now, one of the largest datasets has come from Qatar during a period of high disease burden and reported an estimated reinfection risk of 0·2%.10…

 “…emerging variants of concern might shift immunity below a protective margin, prompting the need for updated vaccines. Interestingly, vaccine responses even after single-dose are substantially enhanced in individuals with a history of infection with SARS-CoV-2.14 These data are all confirmation, if it were needed, that for SARS-CoV-2 the hope of protective immunity through natural infections might not be within our reach, and a global vaccination programme with high efficacy vaccines is the enduring solution.

(J. Harris: Data from Denmark which has uniform medical care which provides good computer data and widely available medical care.)

mRNA vaccination boosts cross-variant neutralizing antibodies elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have raised concerns about resistance to neutralizing antibodies elicited by previous infection or vaccination. We examined whether sera from recovered and naïve donors collected prior to, and following immunizations with existing mRNA vaccines, could neutralize the Wuhan-Hu-1 and B.1.351 variants. Pre-vaccination sera from recovered donors neutralized Wuhan-Hu-1 and sporadically neutralized B.1.351, but a single immunization boosted neutralizing titers against all variants and SARS-CoV-1 by up to 1000-fold. Neutralization was due to antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain and was not boosted by a second immunization. Immunization of naïve donors also elicited cross-neutralizing responses, but at lower titers. Our study highlights the importance of vaccinating both uninfected and previously infected persons to elicit cross-variant neutralizing antibodies.

CDC-recommended vaccines should be mandatory for healthcare personnel, infectious disease experts say


Rutgers says all students must be vaccinated before coming to campus in the fall.

NEW YORK TIMES DATA FROM 3/28/21:

LAST BUT NOT LEASED:

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CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/27/2021

J&J VACCINE AVAILABLE LOCALLY

We have appointments available to get the J&J COVID 19 vaccine in our office on Monday, March 29th. Sign up through our website https://mhchd.org/. Anyone 18 years old and older is now eligible to get the vaccine. 

Jennifer Hancock, RN, BSN  

Executive Director – Marshall-Harrison County Health District

FROM THE NYTIMES SAT:

States are racing to vaccinate as many people as possible as the coronavirus infection curve continues its plateau for a third week.
At least 34 states are giving all adults vaccine access by mid-April, and at least 14 more have announced plans to expand eligibility on or before May 1, a goal set by President Biden. Track your state here. Above, a vaccine clinic in Coraopolis, Pa.
The expansion comes at a critical juncture. The U.S. is logging more than 54,000 new cases per day, a level that health experts warn could rapidly escalate into a new wave.
As U.S. manufacturers hit their stride, vaccine scarcity will soon turn to glut. And then there’s the battle against disinformation: Far-right extremist groups have shifted their focus from “stop the steal” to bashing the safety and efficacy of coronavirus vaccines.********

READ THIS AND WEEP  Epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm on what the UK variant means for the pandemic’s 3rd act

J. Harris: Unfortunately, the events predicted in this piece are likely to come true. Very readable and extremely important. You may be vaccinated, but most folks are not.

Don’t quit being careful yet.

Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome

(J. Harris: Fabulous article worth keeping if you have Long Haul problems. Fairly readable for civilians.)

How the US Failed to Prioritize SARS-CoV-2 Variant Surveillance

“Despite leading the world in infections, the nation ranked 43rd globally for its percentage of cases sequenced. At the time, the US had sequenced about 50 000 of its more than 18 million cases—just 0.3%. Britain, another high-income nation with a large outbreak, had sequenced almost 160 000 samples, 7.4% of its 2.1 million cases…there’s no consensus on what number of sequences is ideal. Modeling by genomic sequencing company Illumina Inc, suggests that 5% of tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 must be sequenced to detect a new variant early on, before it causes more than 1% of cases. Some US experts are arguing for more volume—even up to 30% of cases.”

(J. Harris: Readable article, and we are making progress.)

From Hopkins Edits:

1. UNITED STATES: The US CDC reported 29.8 million cumulative cases and 542,584 deaths. Daily incidence has increased slightly over the past 5 days, up from 53,501 new cases per day to 57,249 (+7%). It is too early to determine if this is the beginning of a longer-term trend, but this is the highest daily incidence since March 7. Daily mortality continues to level off, hovering at slightly more than 1,000 deaths per day for more than a week.

2. MORE ON DOGS AND CATS:

The B.1.1.7 variant has been identified for the first time in household pets. In a preprint study published in bioRxiv, veterinarians from a specialty veterinary clinic located in the southeast of England describe the first cases of B.1.1.7 infection among 8 cats and 3 dogs, all of which required veterinary visits due to new-onset symptoms, including lethargy, loss of appetite, rapid breathing, and severe cardiac abnormalities. All of the owners had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 prior to their pets developing symptoms. In another report, researchers from Texas A&M University, as part of an ongoing research project funded by the US CDC, describe a cat and dog from the same household infected with the B.1.1.7 variant but showing no symptoms at the time of initial testing. Their owner was diagnosed with the B.1.1.7 variant only two days prior to the pets’ tests. The report notes both pets later developed symptoms, including sneezing, that resolved after one month. The researchers say these cases raise questions regarding the risk companion animals may play in the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly given the enhanced infectivity and transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant, and encourage additional research.  

FROM THE WASHINGTON POST FRIDAY EVENING:

The latest

Outside of big cities, where office buildings remain vacant, people in America are becoming more active. That’s according to cellphone data The Washington Post analyzed showing that in certain regions – parts of the Deep South and Mountain West – mobility is higher than it was before the coronavirus hit. This spring fever is palpable across much of the country, and as people are on the move so is the virus: There is increasing evidence of a new bump in cases.

REGAIN YOUR SENSE OF SMELL

(J. Harris: Extensive article and pod cast for Long Haulers with diminished sense of taste)

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CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/26/2021

CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/26/2021

WHAT’S THE BEST THING ABOUT FARM CITY WEEK IN MARSHALL, TEXAS?  

They didn’t have it last year!     

From the current photos in the MNM, the participants, families, and buyers were young, healthy-looking people elbow to elbow in the crowds.  Likely, most of them are not vaccinated — yet. Of course, few if any wore masks. No sweat. We’re bulletproof in East Texas. A little virus isn’t going to shut us down. Country folks aren’t SuperSpreaders. Besides, most of the sick old folks are already dead.)

Local rotary club signs up almost 200 community members for COVID-19 vaccine

Despite CDC changes, Longview-area schools keeping COVID-19 distancing guidelines

Pre-existing conditions are associated with COVID-19 patients’ hospitalization, despite confirmed clearance of SARS-CoV-2 virus

This study shows that hospitalized COVID-19 patients who were re-admitted to the hospital following confirmed viral clearance of SARS-CoV-2 had higher rates of pre-existing conditions including: acute kidney injury, anemia, and cardiac arrhythmias. This suggests that these pre-existing conditions may be risk factors for the post-clearance complications of COVID-19 which require hospitalization.

Hopkins Cited:

1. New SARS-CoV-2 Variants — Clinical, Public Health, and Vaccine Implications (New England Journal of Medicine) Three new variants that have rapidly become dominant within their countries have aroused concerns: B.1.1.7, 501Y.V2, and P.1. All three variants have the N501Y mutation, which changes the amino acid asparagine (N) to tyrosine (Y) at position 501 in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein.Four key concerns stemming from the emergence of the new variants are their effects on viral transmissibility, disease severity, reinfection rates (i.e., escape from natural immunity), and vaccine effectiveness (i.e., escape from vaccine-induced immunity).

2. Few Facts, Millions Of Clicks: Fearmongering Vaccine Stories Go Viral Online

3. ‘Alarm Bells’: Brazil’s COVID-19 Chaos Sparks Fear, Countermeasures from Neighbors (Reuters) Brazil has been so ravaged by coronavirus, including a new and highly contagious home-grown variant known as P1, that Colombia would not permit Brazilian [basketball players] to land on their soil for the Copa America tournament last month. Sports are just the beginning. Brazil’s neighbors and trading partners are taking steps to limit contact with South America’s largest country – and contemplating more draconian ones.

4. The Next Trick: Pulling Coronavirus Out of Thin Air

(An air sampler that can diagnosis the presence of Covid in the room air)

Bias in National News Coverage of Covid?

(J. Harris: I read the NYT version of the story, which is a bit startling to those of us whose media reverence, particularly for the written media, goes all the way back to Clark Kent. Good read.)

“About 87 percent of Covid coverage in national U.S. media last year was negative. The share was 51 percent in international media, 53 percent in U.S. regional media and 64 percent in scientific journals…Notably, the coverage was negative in both U.S. media outlets with liberal audiences (like MSNBC) and those with conservative audiences (like Fox News)…[the author] is careful to emphasize that he does not think journalists usually report falsehoods. The issue is which facts they emphasize.

…If we’re constantly telling a negative story, we are not giving our audience the most accurate portrait of reality. We are shading it. We are doing a good job telling you why Covid cases are rising in some places and how the vaccines are imperfect — but not such a good job explaining why cases are falling elsewhere or how the vaccines save lives. Perhaps most important, we are not being clear about which Covid developments are truly alarming…The U.S. media is giving the audience what it wants…In the modern era of journalism — dating roughly to the Vietnam War and Watergate — we tend to equate impact with asking tough questions and exposing problems. There are some good reasons for that. We are inundated by politicians, business executives, movie stars and others trying to portray themselves in the best light. Our job is to cut through the self-promotion and find the truth. If we don’t tell you the bad news, you may never hear it.”

Pfizer begins early-stage study of oral COVID-19 drug 

(J. Harris: Brief mention of all the oral antiCovid medications currently being developed. I expect some of these medications will prove to be helpful — like Tamiflu for Influenza.)

AND LAST BUT NOT LEASED: 

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The Brown Recluse Spider

The Brown Recluse Spider

Editor’s note:  I have known one person that was  bitten by a Brown Recluse.  It took him about 6 months to fully recover.

About 4 years ago I had a Doctor appointment. That morning they called and postponed it because our Dr. was in surgery. Two days later they called back and cancelled my appointment because our Doctor had died on the operating table. We thought that he was the one doing the operation. He had been bitten by a Brown Recluse. He had tried treating himself instead of getting help. He was fairly young (late 40’s) and the best Doctor we had ever had.

Brown Recluse Spider . . ..

At this time of year, this is worth seeing.

Show these pictures to your spouse, your kids, grand kids, and friends. It could save their lives. Remember what this Spider looks like and be careful while cleaning, as told below.

It’s summertime & cleanup is going on. Be careful where you put your hands. They like dark spaces & woodpiles. Also cool areas in the attic……………………………………..

The Brown Recluse Spider is the most

dangerous spider that we have here in the USA.

A person can die from it’s bite. We all should know what the spider looks like.

Send this around to people you love, because it is almost summer time.

People will be digging around, doing yard work, spring cleaning, and sometimes in their attics.

Please be careful.

Spider bites are dangerous and can have permanent and highly negative consequences.

They like the darkness and tend to live in storage sheds or attics or other areas that might not be frequented by people or light.

If you have a need to be in your attic, go up there and turn on a light and leave it on for about 30 minutes before you go in to do your work. 

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Are Electric Cars Really Better for the Environment?

EVs produce fewer emissions overall than their gas-powered counterparts, but there are caveats 

Editor’s note:  This article contains excerpts for a Wall Street Journal.  Their article is much more complete and contains great graphics. I would encourage readers to go to that article. If you subscribe to the Wall Street Journal click here

By Russell Gold, Jessica Kuronen and Elbert Wang

Published March 22, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET

Carmakers including General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG are retooling their companies to make electric vehicles on the premise that their battery-powered motors are cleaner than gas-burning engines.

Are EVs really better for the environment, though? A close look at all the factors shows they are — but it’s a complex answer with some asterisks.

The environmental cost of a car includes both building it and fueling it. That means factoring in emissions associated with oil drilling and power plant smokestacks, as well as from mining metals such as nickel and cobalt that are needed for electric-car batteries.

How quickly the U.S. fleet switches from combustion engines to electric motors will have a huge effect on the country’s overall greenhouse gas emissions. Light-duty vehicles currently contribute 17% of the U.S. total.

To help prevent the global average temperature from rising more than two degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris Agreement, cumulative U.S. vehicle emissions should be limited to 39 gigatons between 2019 and 2050, according to the University of Toronto researchers.

We looked at four possible scenarios for the future, using the University of Toronto data. In all four, cumulative emissions continue to rise steeply. Two scenarios stay under the 39 gigaton goal—barely. It comes down to reducing gasoline consumption, which has a bigger effect on cumulative emissions than a rise in demand for electricity and minerals with EVs.

SCENARIO 1 — BUSINESS AS USUAL

What happens if gasoline-powered engines continue to dominate for the foreseeable future?

In this scenario, where EVs don’t reach more than 10% of new car sales by 2050, gasoline demand is basically flat.

Emissions from U.S. vehicles would be nearly 49 gigatons, well above the target to stay within Paris Agreement levels.

SCENARIO 2 — HYBRID NATION

What happens if drivers, worried about where they could charge their EVs, flock to hybrids instead?

Gasoline consumption would fall in half and emissions would be lower, but still above the 39 gigatons to stay on target to meet the Paris goals.

SCENARIO 3 — CALIFORNIA DREAMING

What if states push aggressive mandates similar to California, which said last fall that it wanted all new cars sold in the state to be EVs by 2035?

Emissions would drop to 35.4 gigatons—below the two-degree threshold. Electricity use would grow astronomically, as would demand for minerals, but gasoline would shrink to 8% of 2020 levels.

SCENARIO 4 — MIX OF STRATEGIES

What if the U.S. promotes EVs, and also pursues other strategies to reduce emissions, such as improving fuel efficiency, making cars lighter and decreasing miles traveled per person?

Emissions would fall the most. Gas demand would drop. Electricity and minerals demand would rise—but not as sharply as in the California-style scenario.

No matter what kind of engines they run on, cars add to greenhouse gas emissions. But the data show that switching from gas to electric vehicles will make a huge impact.

Consumers making individual choices between cars will make a difference. So will policy decisions made by governments and investments by companies as we drive into the future.

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CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/24/2021

CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 03/24/2021

“The average number of new cases in Harrison County reached five yesterday, a 10 percent increase from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 14 people who live in Harrison County have been infected, and at least 1 in 652 have died.”

 Hopkins Cited:

1. Major Coronavirus Variant Found in Pets for First Time (Science) Two reports released this week have found the first evidence that dogs and cats can become infected by B.1.1.7, a recent variant of the pandemic coronavirus that transmits more readily between people and also appears more lethal in them. The finds mark the first time one of the several major variants of concern has been seen outside of humans.

NIAID: AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine data may be outdated

NIAID’s statement, issued just after midnight on March 23, said that its data and safety monitoring board expressed concern that AstraZeneca’s announcement was based on “outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.” The data and safety monitoring board notified AstraZeneca and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority of its concerns.

U.S. Health Officials Question AstraZeneca Vaccine Trial Results

In a two-page letter to AstraZeneca and federal authorities on Monday, an independent panel of medical experts that was helping oversee the vaccine’s clinical trial in the United States said the company had essentially cherry-picked data that was “most favorable for the study as opposed to the most recent and most complete.”

But the independent oversight board said in its letter that the vaccine’s efficacy may have been between 69 percent and 74 percent. The letter reprimanded AstraZeneca for an overly rosy description of the trial data. (J. Harris: That’s not too bad if accurate. The FDA and the company have had communication trouble for a year or two — but so have other people.)

 The company said on Tuesday that the interim results appeared to be “consistent” with more recent data collected during the trial. AstraZeneca said it would immediately share its latest efficacy data with the monitoring board. The company said it would reissue fuller results within 48 hours.

Many millions of people have received the AstraZeneca shot worldwide, including more than 17 million in Britain and the European Union, almost all without serious side effects. In an effort to increase public confidence, many European political leaders have gotten the injections in recent days. The AstraZeneca vaccine has also been administered in the past week to leaders in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.

Ageism: a social determinant of health that has come of age 

Globally, ageism affects billions of people: at least one in two people hold ageist attitudes against older adults,5 with rates much higher in lower-income countries (figure). In Europe, the only region for which data about ageism are available for all age groups, one in three people have experienced ageism, with rates highest among 15–24 year olds.

The Global Report on Ageism makes three recommendations for concrete actions that all stakeholders can take to combat ageism. First, invest in effective strategies to prevent and respond to ageism. Second, fund and improve data and research to better understand ageism and how to address it. Third, build a movement to change the narrative around age and ageing. The promise of the Decade of Healthy Ageing can only be fully realised if ageism is recognised as a social determinant of health and tackled.

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

“Effective vaccines with high uptake are likely to be an essential element in the long-term control and potential elimination of COVID-19. However, experience with other diseases has shown that elimination is difficult and generally requires a targeted multi-strategy approach.35 The same is likely to be true for SARS-CoV-2, with eradication unlikely to be feasible in the short-term and requiring a global perspective. Although mass vaccination will inevitably reduce R and disease prevalence, other measures, such as intensive test, trace, and isolate strategies, will be needed to target pockets of infection. Maintaining low levels [KEEPING THE LEVELS LOW] of infection is likely to be key to the success of test, trace, and, isolate strategies and in reducing the risk of vaccine escape.37 Ultimately, whether we achieve the eradication of SARS-CoV-2 is likely to depend on the long-term natural history of the infection and the public health importance attached to this goal.

(J. Harris: Except for the summary (maybe) this very long, virtually incomprehensible British statistical article is saying “it ain’t over ’till the fat lady sings” and the singing isn’t going to start just because we vaccinate a lot of people. To eradicate Covid will take a long time and will require testing, tracing, and quarantines, and I would suggest masks, distance, and good sense….

I wonder what statisticians talk about at cocktail parties? With whom? Do they even get invited to parties? Come to think of it, who goes to parties anymore, anyway?

LAST BUT NOT LEASED:

A SHORT FILM BY the ONION: GUIDELINES FOR THE COVID VACCINATED

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Gun Control and Drunk Driving

Sen. Jon Kennedy of Louisiana in a floor debate on tightening gun restrictions used the analogy of the number of people killed annually by drunk drivers.

He made a point, but not a valid one when linked to gun safety measures.

However, this country could easily and quickly put a severe dent in the drunk driving problem in the country.

Impose tougher restrictions: First offense, $10,000 fine, 30 days in jail and confiscation and public sale of vehicle; second offense, $25,000 fine, year in jail and confiscation of vehicle.

There might be a bunch of drunks walking around but durn few drunk drivers.

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