CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 3/3/2022
RELATTIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATIONS ANH HOSPITALIZATIONSS FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES:
(J. Harris: “Drat” — Omicron Bad Ass 2 Variant arrives.)
FROM HOPKINS EDITS:
China Quietly Plans a Pivot From ‘Zero COVID’ (Science) China’s aggressive “zero COVID” strategy has served it remarkably well. The country has reported fewer than 154,000 cases and 5200 deaths from COVID-19 so far, a tiny fraction of the figures in the United States. But as the highly transmissible Omicron variant seeps into the country and the social and economic costs of the zero COVID policy mount, Chinese researchers are examining options for coexisting with the virus, as the rest of the world is doing. Some think that shift may soon begin. It will be a momentous decision, and the country is sure to proceed cautiously.
FROM THE LANCET:
”…IFRs [INFECTION-FATALITY RATIOS] varied by a factor of more than 30 among 190 countries and territories in this analysis. In particular, the presence of elevated age-standardised IFRs in countries with well resourced health-care systems indicates that factors beyond health-care capacity are important. Potential extenuating circumstances include outbreaks among care home residents, variable burdens of severe cases, and the population prevalence of comorbid conditions that increase the severity of COVID-19 disease. During the pre-vaccine period, the estimated 33% decrease in median IFR over 8 months suggests that treatment for COVID-19 has improved over time. Estimating IFR for the pre-vaccine era provides an important baseline for describing the progression of COVID-19 mortality patterns.”
”…Knowing whether COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness wanes is crucial for informing vaccine policy, such as the need for and timing of booster doses. We aimed to systematically review the evidence for the duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against various clinical outcomes, and to assess changes in the rates of breakthrough infection caused by the delta variant with increasing time since vaccination…COVID-19 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against severe disease remained high, although it did decrease somewhat by 6 months after full vaccination. By contrast, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease decreased approximately 20–30 percentage points by 6 months. The decrease in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness is likely caused by, at least in part, waning immunity, although an effect of bias cannot be ruled out. Evaluating vaccine efficacy or effectiveness beyond 6 months will be crucial for updating COVID-19 vaccine policy.
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