CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 08/19/2021

HELLO,

THE LAST TIME IN AREA G THAT LAB-CONFIRMED COVID HOSPITALIZATION AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL HOSPITAL CAPACITY WAS GREATER THAN 15% (NOV.25- JAN. 29), IT PERSISTED 65 DAYS. SHOULD THIS “SPELL” LAST 65 DAYS, IT WILL BE OCT. 13, 2021) BEFORE THE NUMBER GOES BELOW 15 %.

IF THIS DELTA MUTANT EPIDEMIC PERSISTS LOCALLY AT 6% AS LONG AS THE ORIGINAL COVID DID (243 DAYS) IT WILL BE MARCH 25, 2022 BEFORE WE ARE BELOW 6% AGAIN. FYI THE COVID % ON JULY 4, 2020 WAS 6. ON JULY 4, 2021, THE COVID % WAS 2 AND INCREASED RAPIDLY. SO INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A DEADY HOLIDAY AND DELTA MOVES QUICKER THAN THE ORIGINAL COVID VIRUS.

I WILL TRY TO ATTACH MY SPREADSHEET.

With the delta variant spreading, Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased over 300% in the last month

NYT DAILEY COVID BRIEFING

(J. Harris: This should open the door to several brief but important articles and updates.)

Waskom ISD closes all campuses until Tuesday due to COVID-19

FROM BECKER:

1. 3 knowns and unknowns in this ‘messy’ COVID-19 surge

Full story

THE MESSIEST PHASE OF THE PANDEMIC YET

FROM HOPKINS CITATIONS:

1. Texas School District Adds Masks to Dress Code, Finding Possible Loophole in Abbott’s Ban (Washington Post) The Paris Independent School District of about 4,000 students announced it would include the masks in the dress code after its board of trustees said it was “concerned about the health and safety of its students and employees.” The district, located about 110 miles northeast of Dallas, noted that Abbott’s executive order last month did not suspend a chapter in the Texas Education Code that gives school districts power to oversee health and safety measures, thus allowing Paris ISD officials to elect to “amend its dress code consistent with its statutory authority.”

(J. Harris: Could we do this? Should we? Probably.)

2. US SUPREME COURT VACCINE MANDATE CHALLENGE The US Supreme Court last week refused to block Indiana University’s requirement that all students, faculty, and staff have a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, unless they qualify for one of several exemptions. The decision to turn down a group of students’ request for emergency relief was issued independently by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who handles emergency requests from Indiana, without explanation, without dissents from other justices, and without asking the university for a response. All of these moves could signal the request does not stand on solid legal ground. Both a federal district judge and an unanimous panel of the US Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit previously rejected requests for emergency relief while the issue moved through the courts. This was the first case involving mandatory SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations to reach the Supreme Court.

3. Association of Age and Pediatric Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Infection (JAMA Pediatrics) In this cohort study of 6280 households with pediatric index cases, the adjusted odds of household transmission by children aged 0 to 3 years was 1.43 compared with children aged 14 to 17 years. This study suggests that younger children may be more likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with older children, and the highest odds of transmission was observed for children aged 0 to 3 years.

”.. A possible explanation for this finding is that younger children are not able to self-isolate from their caregivers when they are sick, irrespective of the timing of testing….As the number of pediatric cases increases worldwide, the role of children in household transmission will continue to grow. We found that younger children may be more likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with older children, and the highest odds of transmission were observed for children aged 0 to 3 years. Differential infectivity of pediatric age groups has implications for infection prevention controls within households and schools/childcare to minimize risk of household secondary transmission. Although children do not appear to transmit infection as frequently as adults, caregivers should be aware of the risk of transmission while caring for sick children in the household setting. As it is challenging and often impossible to socially isolate from sick children, caregivers should apply other infection control measures where feasible, such as use of masks, increased hand washing, and separation from siblings.

(J. Harris:This reports a very large Canadian study, which was carefully done. I would have guessed that older children caused more infections at home.)

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Don’t irritate old people. The older we get, the less “Life in prison” is a deterrent.

Aliens probably fly by earth and lock their doors.