A review of the state Covid data shows that no additional “active” cases have been added since the 56 that were added on 19 June, apparently due to a bookkeeping procedure.
Hospital data in area G looks good. If we don’t get a Delta event with Juneteenth and July 4th we should be doing well. J. Harris
FROM HOPKINS: DELTA DATA:
DELTA VARIANT OF CONCERN Experts predict the highly transmissible Delta variant of concern, also known as B.1.617.2, will become the dominant strain in the US in the near future. As select states roll back pandemic guidelines and restrictions on social gatherings, the number of Delta variant cases has roughly doubled every two weeks in the US, raising concerns among experts over the potential for breakthrough infections and localized outbreaks. US CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warned that transmission of the variant coupled with stagnating vaccination rates in some states could allow the variant to mutate enough to evade protection offered by the vaccines. Dr. Walensky and other experts continue to urge the public to get fully vaccinated, while others note an alarming trend in some states: people skipping their second dose. According to one study (preprint), 2-dose effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 87.9% with the Delta variant, but only 33.5% after 1 dose.
According to data from the CDC and the US Department of Health and Human Services, 5 states—Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Utah—have experienced increases of 37% or more in their 7-day daily case averages over the last two weeks. Notably, the vaccination rates in those 5 states are lower than the national average. Currently, 45.7% of the US population has been fully vaccinated. States with higher vaccination rates, including Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts, have achieved levels of population immunity that could be more successful at keeping the Delta variant at bay.
Internationally, COVID-19 cases attributable to the Delta variant are rising sharply in parts of Indonesia, including the capital Jakarta, which has seen an increase in the number of severe cases among younger adults. In Europe, experts are closely watching spikes in SARS-CoV-2 cases driven by the Delta variant. Officials in the UK and Portugal have reimplemented or held off on lifting lockdown measures due to an increasing number of cases, and experts in France, Germany, and Spain are monitoring clusters of Delta cases. The greater transmissibility and disease severity of the Delta variant could cause outbreaks to grow more serious more quickly than surges caused by previous variants.
From Other Hopkins Citations:
1, Rapid Displacement of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.7 [ALPHA] by B.1.617.2[DELTA]( and P.1 [GAMMA] in the United States (MedRxiv) The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.617.2 displaced B.1.1.7 as the dominant variant in England and other countries. This study aimed to determine whether B.1.617.2 was also displacing B.1.1.7 in the United States. We analyzed PCR testing results and viral sequencing results of samples collected across the United States, and showed that B.1.1.7 was rapidly being displaced and is no longer responsible for the majority of new cases. The percentage of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases that are B.1.1.7 dropped from 70% in April 2021 to 42% in just 6 weeks. Our analysis showed rapid growth of variants B.1.617.2 and P.1 as the primary drivers for this displacement. Currently, the growth rate of B.1.617.2 was higher than P.1 in the US (0.61 vs. 0.22), which is consistent with reports from other countries. Lastly, we showed that B.1.617.2 was growing faster in counties with a lower vaccination rate.
2. Covid-19 Delta Variant Threatens to Set Back Europe’s Recovery (WSJ) The Delta variant of the coronavirus is spreading rapidly across continental Europe, raising the risk of a rebound in infections and a delay to the region’s economic comeback. The variant, first discovered in India late last year, has prompted Portugal to seal off its capital city of Lisbon on weekends. In Germany, where Delta is still rare, scientists expect it to make up the majority of Covid-19 infections in the coming months. In France and Italy, the prevalence of the variant is still below 5%, according to official figures, but has at least doubled in recent weeks.
(J. Harris: An opinion piece that makes a lot of sense to me. I’ve had it a while)
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