July 24, 2020
|James Harris||2:34 PM (26 minutes ago)|
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JOHNS HOPKINS FILTERS1. At the state level, several hard-hit states appear to be peaking or plateauing as well. Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all exhibiting relatively steady or decreasing daily incidence over the past week or so; however, Arizona, Florida, and Texas continue to report record mortality (and continuing to increase). Florida and Texas are both now averaging more than 100 deaths per day, and Arizona is reporting more than 80 deaths per day. Notably, Arizona is reporting more than 1.1 daily deaths per 100,000 population, which is more than double the current rate in Florida and Texas.
Can Masks Save Us From More Lockdowns? Here’s What The Science Says (SIMPLE WAY TO UNDERSTAND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OR DECLINE! VERY IMPORTANT)
If 95% of people wear cloth masks when they’re out and about interacting with other people, it reduces transmission by at least 30%. In other words, each infected person will go on to infect 30% fewer people.
Yet even with a 30% reduction in transmission, the cumulative impact on a community can be massive. To understand why, it helps to consider some math: The coronavirus spreads exponentially. For example, let’s say in a place where no one is wearing masks, each infected person is currently passing the virus to 1.03 others. This means 100 infected people will go on to infect 103 others, who in turn infect 106 others, who infect 109 and so on. The result is that in, say, seven five-day cycles of infection, a total of 889 people will have contracted the virus.
But if you curb the transmission rate by 30%, this means that instead of infecting 1.03 others, each infected person passes the virus on to only 0.72 others. So now 100 infected people go on to infect only 72 people. These 72 go on to infect just 52 people in the next cycle. By the seventh cycle, only 10 new people are infected, and only a total of 332 people have contracted the virus altogether. Essentially, instead of exponential growth you’ve triggered what’s called exponential decay.
TEXAS is now less than 1 !!!!!!!
What washes up on tiny beaches? Microwaves.
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