We are confident we have eliminated transmission of the virus in New Zealand for now, but elimination is not a point in time, it is a sustained effort,” she said at a news conference. “We almost certainly will see cases here again, and I do want to say that again, we will almost certainly see cases here again, and that is not a sign that we have failed, it is a reality of this virus. But if and when that occurs we have to make sure — and we are — that we are prepared.”
FALSE NEGATIVES 101 FROM THE WASHINGTON POST
If you think you’ve been exposed to covid-19 at a protest — or anywhere else — it’s probably best to stay in quarantine for at least a few days before going out to get a test.
If the virus has entered your system and is starting to replicate, you do technically have the infection, but it won’t show up in the nasal or mouth swab test immediately, which means your result will come back as a false negative (and be a false sense of security).
“Since testing depends on having a certain amount of the coronavirus present in your nose (or nasopharynx), it can take several days from the time you’re exposed to when you will be able to be tested,” according to the University of Chicago School of Medicine.
False positives are rare, but false negatives can happen for a variety of reasons — mainly because there either isn’t enough of the virus in the mouth or nose to identify the infection, or the test was administered incorrectly and didn’t get a large enough sample.
“If you test negative for covid-19 by a viral test, you probably were not infected at the time your sample was collected,” the CDC says. “However, that does not mean you will not get sick. The test result only means that you did not have covid-19 at the time of testing.”
Even if you have caught the virus, symptoms might not show up for two weeks. You might never show symptoms at all — but in either case, experts say, you could still be contagious and could spread it to others.
All of this uncertainty is why health experts recommend social distancing while the virus is spreading, and why they strongly recommend that you self-isolate for 14 days if you think you’ve been exposed.
(THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT ARTICLE FOR OLDER OR CAREFUL PEOPLE AND SHOULD BE READ CAREFULLY, PRINTED, FILED, AND KEPT FOR A REFERENCE)
FROM JOHNS HOPKINS:
1. Shutdowns Prevented 60 million Coronavirus Infections in the U.S., Study Finds (Washington Post) Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel coronavirus infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a research study published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion.
2. GENETIC VARIATIONS & COVID-19 A recent study (preprint, not yet peer reviewed) indicates that individuals with certain blood types and other genetic variations may be at elevated risk of respiratory failure due to COVID-19. The genome-wide association study (GWAS), included 1,980 participants experiencing respiratory failure due to COVID-19 in Italy and Spain were included in the genome-wide association analysis. One key finding suggested that individuals with Type A blood were at 50% higher risk of requiring oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation. Notably, genetic variations related to the ACE2 receptor, which is how the SARS-CoV-2 virus attaches to human cells, did not show any significant impact on infection. Results of this study could help clinicians to identify patients at higher risk of respiratory failure that may need aggressive, proactive measures. Considering the broad range of disease severity for COVID-19, from asymptomatic infection to severe disease and death, information regarding risk factors is important to characterizing the disease and pandemic and potentially identify targets for treatment or vaccine development.
COVID HOSPITILIZATIONS INCREASING IN THE UNITED STATES
J. Harris: Last week a The Woodlands internist told me that the number of hospital admissions for COVID was perhaps the most important number to follow as the Pandemic proceeds. He may be very right:
1. From the Atlantic: If cases are rising and more people are going to the hospital with COVID-19, we’d expect that more people are getting seriously sick. And in Arizona, alas, cases and hospitalizations are both at all-time highs. Cases and hospitalizations are also rising in Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
“….we can ask a question of the data: How many people do you need to test to find a positive case? This metric—the number of tests per positive result—was first proposed by Tong Wang, a medical student at the University of Pennsylvania. In Arizona, through most of May, about one in 16 coronavirus tests came back positive. Today, Arizona is testing more people, but about 1 in 10 tests is coming back positive. This is also true across the South, the Southwest, and the West: Finding a positive coronavirus case is easier than it used to be.
These two signs make us worry that the pandemic is about to get worse in some parts of the U.S.
2. NPR AND NYT: …Texas reported a record-breaking number of COVID-19 hospitalizations Monday as the governor plans to reopen more businesses and double capacity….But even in states where officials left stringent restrictions in place, the number of newly diagnosed cases are rising. About 20 states, including California and Arizona, have also reported a rise in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks…
J. Harris: The point is, of course, the number of positive tests will continue to rise with the spread of the virus and the abundance of more and better testing and with a more compliant public. In addition, the state is opening up businesses and there have been large, loud groups of people in many locals who did not keep proper spacing. So active cases and positive test numbers will go up. HOWEVER, the most important number to follow is the number of Daily Hospital Admissions for COVID. I’ll try and keep up with that number in Texas and in the U. S. I suspect it will rise.
Yesterday, I failed to end with a Pun. So, today, we get two. Stay safe.
A vulture carrying two dead raccoons boards an airplane. The stewardess looks at him and says, ‘I’m sorry, only one carrion allowed per pass.
What did the custodian say when he jumped out of the closet? “Supplies!”
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