June 6-7 2020





J. Harris: It appears that at this time LOCAL active cases are going down, while the state is up a bit. Our cautious approach seems to be paying off. 

Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic (A readable evaluation of COVID control measures until now)
In summary, we are now facing a totally new, extraordinarily complex, and highly damaging virus. Countries are in different phases of the epidemic: early stage, plateau phase, or having just gained first-phase victory but facing additional waves from imported cases. Countries need to implement measures tailored to epidemiological circumstances and system capacities, but successful practices in several countries, including China, Singapore, and South Korea, show that—at the individual level—identification and management of infected people and their close contacts are practices that work.37,  60,  61.
FROM JOHNS HOPKINS (FYI, “Johns” was a family name on Mrs. Hopkins’ side of the family–Mr. Johns Hopkins was an interesting fellow who made and gave away a lot of money).
     1. Iran reported 3,574 new cases, continuing its second “wave.” This appears to be Iran’s highest daily incidence to date, surpassing the peak of its first wave (3,186 on March 31). Iran is now #8 globally in terms of daily incidence. After a period of relaxing nationwide social distancing measures, Iranian President Dr. Hassan Rouhani recently emphasized the importance of limiting non-essential travel. Additionally, Iran has deployed medical teams “from successful provinces” to areas where COVID-19 is re-emerging. (J. Harris: Note a “second wave” is building up in Iran)
     2. SARS-CoV-2 NOT MUTATING TO BECOME MORE DANGEROUS During the WHO daily COVID-19 briefing on June 3, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, Technical Lead for the WHO COVID-19 response, indicated that the genomic analysis conducted thus far has not identified any genetic changes to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that would suggest an increase in transmissibility or disease severity. She emphasized that complacency or fatigue among the public resulting from prolonged social distancing restrictions could contribute to increased transmission, even if the virus itself is not undergoing significant mutations.
Nicely written, readable, important, informative, worth the read, updater on everything.
Some excerpts:
The United States knows how to fight wars. But, as the past few months have shown, the American response to pathogens can easily become a shambles — even though pathogens kill more Americans than many wars have.

We have no viral Pentagon. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is more of an F.B.I. for outbreak investigations than a war machine. For years — under both the Obama and Trump administrations — its leaders have had to seek clearance for almost every utterance.

“They spend billions on missiles and submarines, and on fighting terrorism, and pennies on viruses. You can start peace talks with your enemy. You can change your policies to lessen the threat of terrorism. But you cannot negotiate with a virus, and we know that new threats are coming along every year.”
Vaccines against respiratory diseases are, at best, modestly effective,…..That’s because the antibodies that protect people against viruses infecting mucosal surfaces like the lining of the nose tend to be short-lived.
Since the coronavirus usually starts by infecting the respiratory system, Dr. Monto suspects that a Covid-19 vaccine would have a similar effect to a flu vaccine — it will reduce the incidence of the disease and make it less severe on average, but it will not make Covid-19 go away.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said since March that contaminated surfaces are “not thought to be the main way” the virus spreads.
The main driver of infection is thought to be directly inhaling droplets released when an infected person sneezes, coughs, sings or talks. The C.D.C. recently made changes to its website to make this message even more explicit.
The hot and humid weather of summer will not stop the pandemic.
Air conditioning may blow the virus right to your restaurant table.
Pun Note: Just as I was getting anxious about running out of puns, Audrey Kariel sent some more good ones. We won’t run out anytime soon. 
Bad Joke for the day: What does a baby computer call its father?     Data.
Pun for the Day: When cannibals ate a missionary,

they got a taste of religion.


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