May 26, 2020

Edmund Wood is over my head with his mathematic ability. He is able to understand, analyze, compress, and chart meaningful data.
Right now, as I analyze this data, things are looking better locally. It will be interesting to rechart everything in a couple of weeks and see if we hurt ourselves over the holiday and with more reopenings. Notice that he is concerned today with ACTIVE CASES LOCALLY  in
the first graph and ACTIVE CASES IN TEXAS on the second chart. 
FROM EDMUND WOOD: I am enclosing a couple of graphs – active cases of Harrison County, with a second line of a calculation by me of active cases based on:
active cases = total of new cases added to active case count each day, LESS each day’s new cases deducted from the running total of active cases after 14 days,   LESS each day’s fatalities, LESS unexplained deductions from the active cases by the TSDHS.  
The method used by TSDHS shows more active cases than my method.   Perhaps it is using a longer recovery time or it is doing some type of backward averaging so cases trends continue further in time.
For example:  if the data shows three successive days new cases:  2 4 8 4 2.  Averaging backward one time would produce: 2, 3=(2+4)/2=6/2, 6=(4+8)/2=12/2, 6=(8+4)/2=12/2, 3=(4+2)/2=6/2
or  2,3,6,6,3
Instead of: 2,4,8,4,2  On the up slope, the backward average is below average, on the downward slope, the backward average is above average.  
The next graph is the active cases for the entire state of Texas.  As you can see Texas continues to increase its active cases.  
CDC DATA TRACKER AND MAPS is a top site for following numbers
Coronavirus Stats & Data from USA FACTS—THIS IS A NEW SOURCE FOR ME. JH

“Serologic methods have been developed and will have important public health and clinical uses to monitor and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.
” Below is my translation of some of this information. I apologize if I have made errors or overly simplified the material. It is all cited above for you through evaluation. JHarris
“…antibody tests help determine whether the individual being tested was ever infected—even if that person never showed symptoms. “…serology (antibody)assays do not typically replace direct detection methods as the primary tool for diagnosing an active SARS-CoV-2 infection, but they do have several important applications in monitoring and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.’’

• Currently, there is no identified advantage of assays whether they test for IgG, IgM and IgG, or total antibody.

• It is important to minimize false positive test results by choosing an assay with high specificity and by testing populations and individuals with an elevated likelihood of previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2

• Antibodies most commonly become detectable 1-3 weeks after symptom onset, at which time evidence suggests that infectiousness likely is greatly decreased and that some degree of immunity from future infection has developed

• In some instances, serologic test results may assist with identifying persons potentially infected with SARS-CoV-2 and determining who may qualify to donate blood that can be used to manufacture convalescent plasma as a possible treatment for those who are seriously ill from COVID-19.

• In addition, the development of neutralizing antibodies can also be assessed. Neutralizing antibodies inhibit viral replication in vitro, and as with many infectious diseases, their presence correlates with immunity to future infection, at least temporarily. NEW. 

• Recurrence of COVID-19 illness appears to be very uncommon, suggesting that the presence of antibodies could confer at least short-term immunity to infection with SARS-CoV-2…..
A dog gave birth to puppies near the road and was cited for littering.


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