CORONAVIRUS INFO PROVIDED BY DR. JIM HARRIS – 5/14/2020

May 14, 2020

TEXAS HHS DAILY CASE COUNTS

JOHNS HOPKINS CORONAVIRUS RESOURCE CENTER

CDC Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Christina Anderson sent me some quality information on mask use.

If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says (DISCUSSING Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations)

…”If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.”   …Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic”’: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations.         Results show a near-perfect correlation between early universal masking and successful suppression of daily case growth rates and/or reduction from peak daily case growth rates, as predicted by our theoretical simulations. a “mouth-and-nose lockdown” is far more sustainable than a “full-body lockdown”, from economic, social, and mental health standpoints. To provide both policymakers and the public with a more concrete feel for how masks impact the dynamics of virus spread, we are making an interactive visualization of the ABM simulation available online at http://dek.ai/masks4all. We recommend immediate mask-wearing recommendations, official guidelines for correct use, and awareness campaigns to shift masking mindsets away from pure self- protection, towards aspirational goals of responsibly protecting one’s community.”…Results show a near perfect correlation between early universal masking and successful suppression of daily case growth rates and/or reduction from peak daily case growth rates, as predicted by our theoretical simulations.

“Our analyses lead to the following key policy recom-

mendations:

  1. Masking should be mandatory or strongly recom- mended for the general public when in public trans- port and public spaces, for the duration of the pan- demic.
  2. Masking should be mandatory for individuals in es- sential functions (health care workers, social and family workers, the police and the military, the ser- vice sector, construction workers, etc) and medical masks and gloves or equally safe protection should be provided to them by employers. Cloth masks should be used if medical masks are unavailable.
  3. Countries should aim to eventually secure mass production and availability of appropriate medical masks (without exploratory valves) for the entire population during the pandemic.
  4. Until supplies are sufficient, members of the general public should wear nonmedical fabric face masks when going out in public and medical masks should be reserved for essential functions.
  5. The authorities should issue masking guidelines to residents and companies regarding the correct and optimal ways to make, wear and disinfect masks.
  6. The introduction of mandatory masking will benefit from being rolled out together with campaigns, citi- zen initiatives, the media, NGOs, and influencers in order to avoid a public backlash in societies not cul- turally accustomed to masking. Public awareness is needed that “masking protects your communitynot just you”. 

Coronavirus May Be Here to Stay, W.H.O. Warns: Live Coverage

The novel coronavirus spreading around the globe “may never go away,” becoming a long-term fact of life that must be managed, not an enemy that can be permanently eradicated, a top World Health Organization official said on Wednesday.

“This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away,” Mike Ryan, head of the organization’s health emergencies program, said at a news briefing. “H.I.V. has not gone away but we’ve come to terms with the virus and we have found the therapies and we have found the prevention methods, and people don’t feel as scared as they did before.”
“There are no promises in this and there are no dates,” he said, tamping down expectations that the invention of a vaccine for the coronavirus will provide a quick and complete end to what has become a global health and economic calamity. A good vaccine might be developed, but there is no telling when, he added, calling it “a moon shot.”
If infected people become immune or resistant, then when enough people have had the virus, there will be fewer left who can catch it or spread it, making outbreaks more manageable. But no one knows how long that will take.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Domestic Cats   With reports of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to domestic cats1 and to tigers and lions at the Bronx Zoo,4 coupled with our data showing the ease of transmission between domestic cats, there is a public health need to recognize and further investigate the potential chain of human–cat–human transmission. This is of particular importance given the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission between family members in households with cats while living under “shelter-in-place” orders. 

In 2016, an H7N2 influenza outbreak in New York City cat shelters5 highlighted the public health implications of cat-to-human transmission to workers in animal shelters. Moreover, cats may be a silent intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, because infected cats may not show any appreciable symptoms that might be recognized by their owners.

 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued guidelines for pet owners regarding SARS-CoV-2 (www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html opens in new tab). Given the need to stop the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic through various mechanisms, including breaking transmission chains, a better understanding of the role cats may play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans is needed.

***

GOOD NEWS FROM HOUSTON ABOUT A PROMISING TREATMENT:

Study finds most COVID-19 patients on plasma therapy have improvedMore than three quarters of Houston Methodist COVID-19 patients who received blood plasma from people who have recovered from the disease saw improvement, according to the first U.S. study on the therapy.

A preliminary report by the Methodist research team also found no adverse side effects and concluded that it is a safe treatment option for patients.

The study, the largest to date assessing the therapy’s use in COVID-19 patients, comes two weeks after study leader Dr. James Musser told the Chronicle that 30 of the first 50 patients treated with the therapy had recovered and gone home.

The therapy, first used during the 1918 Spanish Influenza and last used in the Ebola outbreak, has become one of the go-to treatments for COVID-19, which has infected more than 1.4 million Americans and killed in excess of 84,000.

FROM TYLER PAPER: Titus County adds 39 COVID-19 cases as other East Texas counties stay in single digits for increases (They have chicken plants)FROM LONGVIEW PAPERGregg County adds two new COVID-19 cases; three more in Harrison
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (A study involving multiple patients in multiple cities in China)
 Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.
(REMEMBER THAT ALMOST ALL OF THESE PEOPLE WEAR MASKS WHEN OUTDOORS)
How to Reopen America Safely
By Marty Makary
Dr. Makary is a surgeon and a professor of health policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health.Excellent article with business suggestions as well as medical. He also stresses wearing masks.


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